Sunday, February 21, 2016

2016 vs. 2015 Mariners Comparisons

The 2016 Seattle Mariners assembled by new General Manager, Jerry Dipoto. A team that was designed with the intentions of making the team stronger at every position and provide depth in the organization. Not only at the major league level, but at every level. In the barrage of trades that happened this past off-season, we need to take a look at every position to see what Dipoto actually accomplished.

This was done by looking at the overall WAR stat. In case you have not figured out what that means yet, it takes the number of wins a player is worth over an everyday replacement level player. Therefore, WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement.

We'll take a look at positions 2 - 9 today and then look at the core of the pitching staff next.


In 2015 the Mariners started with Mike Zunino. Touted for his incredible defense, Zunino had held the starting job for the last couple of years in hopes that his bat would come around, but that never happened. Zunino was finally sent down at the end of 2015 and that led Dipoto looking for his replacement. The Mariners signed a couple of catchers this off-season, but the leading candidate for the starting job proves to be Chris Iannetta.

Zunino had the majority of plate appearances for the Mariners at the catcher position and held a -0.7 WAR. Even with exceedingly great defense, his overall WAR was still a negative because he could not getting his bat going at any point of the season and was becoming the new Mario Mendoza.

Iannetta brings a little bit of a resume with him. Although he had a down year last year with a .188 average, he still held a .293 on base percentage and has a .351 OBP in his career. That kind of plate discipline is what Dipoto is asking for and it helped Iannetta get to a +0.7 WAR. It's not great, but at least it's better than the negative WAR that we were faced with last year.


Logan Morrison was a fan favorite in Seattle and there were a ton of fans and Mariner executives that hoped he would have a breakout season. Although he showed glimpses of promise, he never became a consistent producer at the plate. Morrison also ended the season in 2015 with a negative WAR at -0.1. That means he was slightly worse than your average replacement player.

Dipoto went to work at first base as well and added Adam Lind. Lind was with Milwaukee last year after a number of years in Toronto. Last year he put up his overall best WAR number at +3.1. He hit .277 with an OBP of .360 on the year. Lind adds a major boost to the first base position and looks to possibly platoon with either Jesus Montero or Korean star Dae Ho Lee. Honestly, I don't think that anyone can quantify anything from the two of them at this point.


Robinson Cano hasn't and will not be going anywhere. We can only hope that he has a better year than he had last year. Although he finished the year with a +3.4 WAR, he can certainly be more productive at the plate and limit some of the mistakes he made last year on the bases. It's safe to assume that we can count on Cano to put up at least a +3.4 again.


Kyle Seager. Need we say more? Seager brings All-Star quality defense at third base and has a strong bat. Although he too went through a drought last season on offense, we can project him to be as consistent as he has been over the years. Seager finished the year with a +4.3 WAR, which is incredible and I don't think anyone has any problems assuming that the Mariners did the right thing by keeping him at third base.


Brad Miller started the year as the starting shortstop, but as the Mariners season went, so did Miller. Eventually moved to the outfield do to some defensive struggles, Miller was probably better suited for second base, but that position was obviously taken. Miller struggled offensively as well and we watched a merry-go-round of players at the shortstop position until landing on Ketel Marte. Miller finished 2015 with a WAR of +0.6.

Marte jumped in the roll at shortstop and added a little pizazz right away. A speedy little player that worked his way into the leadoff spot in the lineup and secured the starting job. We cannot assume a lot this year, but we can assume that he will be the starter. 2015 finished with Marte having a +2.3 WAR in his short stint and if he can do that for all of 2016, nobody would complain a bit.


Seth Smith began the year as a platoon player last season and is slated to do the same this year. With the exodus of Dustin Ackley, Smith will hold down left field this year with Franklin Gutierrez. Guti came on late last year as he worked his way up from triple A Tacoma after suffering some major health issues. Guti came on strong and was mashing the ball all over the place in the second half of the season. It's safe to assume that Guti will have a major role in left field this year as long as he remains healthy. Smith finished last year with a +1.9 WAR, while Guti completed 2015 with a +2.4.


Austin Jackson is the one player in 2015 that had a higher war at his position than the player that Dipoto snagged to fill his spot. The Mariners signed Leonys Martin from the Texas Rangers who is a proven center fielder that can cover a lot of ground. Jackson was similar, but older and he was a free agent. Jackson made $7.7 million as a Mariner and Leonys Martin will make $4.15 million.

Jackson held a WAR of +1.4 while Martin had a +1.1, however, Martin's numbers over the years prior to last year were even better at +4.6 WAR in 2014 and +3.5 in 2013. Jackson had down years in his past two seasons which may prove that he is declining. It is much more feasible that Martin can bounce back and have a better season this year.


Nelson Cruz defied all critics last year and proved to everyone that even HE can hit at Safeco Field. Not being held back, he was the mainstay in right field last year.

With Dipoto and Manager Scott Servais looking at improving defense at every position, one cannot assume that Cruz will get the majority of the playing time in right field again this year, but, how do you tell your star player to take a seat? Especially when Cruz put up far better numbers as a position player than he did as a designated hitter.

Cruz had a +5.2 WAR in 2015 while his potential replacement, Nori Aoki, had a +1.0 WAR. Aoki is projected to take Marte's place as the leadoff hitter due to his ability to get on base. With a career .287 batting average and a .353 on base percentage, Aoki needs to be in the lineup. Spring training will be decision making time for Servais and Dipoto. Do they want to risk moving Cruz out of right? Is Aoki or Cruz willing to play half the season as a DH? Only time will tell, but either way, you have to assume that both of them will be in the lineup and hope that their WAR will not change too drastically.

Our DH spot last year was led by Cruz at 72 games, followed by Mark Trumbo and a host of other trial players. They hit a cumulative .245 with an .316 OBP. Cruz hit .263 as a DH and a crazy .337 in right with a .402 OBP. Anyone looking at those numbers would believe that Cruz will be staying in right.


As a team, the Seattle Mariners position players had a cumulative WAR of 16. That does not include the island of misfit toys that were their replacements. It doesn't include the Ackley's, Sucre's, Chris Taylor's etc. that would easily bring this number down from where it is. The 2015 squad had a large portion of the season dominated by many of these players that were also upgraded in this last off-season.

2016 calculated out a total WAR of 22.5 for positions 2 - 9. That is a total of 6.5 more wins amongst a total of 8 position players. If we can add 6.5 wins per every 8 players, that would be an astonishing +20 wins added to our season in 2016. An extra 20 wins would have left the 2015 Mariners with 96 wins and a first place finish in the AL West.

Obviously this is just paper. Players can have worse years, players can have better years. However, if the team buys in like Dipoto and Servais are asking them to, this season will be an exciting one. When players are having fun going to work everyday it makes a world of difference and it's something that Mariner fans have not seen since Griffey was carried around the field on the shoulders of his teammates in 2009.

Pitchers up next, stay tuned.